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Navigating shipping in 2026: sanctions, trade wars and regulatory fragmentation

Koøye

From expanded sanctions regimes and armed conflict risks to new US port fee proposals and uncertainty surrounding the IMO Net-Zero Framework, 2026 presents a complex regulatory environment for the maritime sector. We highlight the key legal developments shaping the year ahead.

Geopolitics continue to affect the shipping industry

Sanctions

The end of 2025 included an expansion of EU sanctions on the Russian shadow fleet. Recently, we have seen several vessels servicing Russian trade switching to the Russian flag, ending the earlier practice of flag-hopping between various less recognised flag states and sailing under fraudulent flags. We expect to see continued coastal state efforts being taken against stateless and falsely flagged vessels, as well as continued extensive use of sanctions, requiring actors in the shipping industry to remain vigilant to avoid inadvertently dealing with sanctioned states, entities or vessels. We also note an increased focus from authorities on compliance with sanctions and export control regulations.

In 2025, we saw the EU (including Norway), the US, and the UK impose restrictions targeting the Russian energy sector and the shadow fleet in particular, with inter alia new asset-freeze measures targeting Rosneft and Lukoil. We also saw actions being taken against the entire maritime logistics chain (vessels, registries, insurers, traders, banks), and frequent listing of new vessels on sanctions lists, signalling that actors in the maritime industry would now need to adopt more predictive, behavioural‑risk compliance measures to stay ahead of the frequent rolling designations.

In the 19th sanctions package by the EU, a phased ban on Russian LNG imports (short‑term contracts from 25 April 2026 and long‑term contracts from 1 January 2027) was introduced, as well as a prohibition on insurance and re-insurance for any vessels or aircraft that were operated directly or indirectly by the Russian government or any legal person established in Russia for five years post sale or leasing agreement.

The EU continues to target entities known for being involved in circumvention in third countries and the 20th sanctions package was announced on 6 February 2026. The proposed 20th sanctions package introduces a complete ban on maritime services for Russian crude oil. EU companies would be prohibited from providing any type of maritime service including insurance, shipping, port access, and financing to vessels carrying Russian crude oil. The ban would apply regardless of whether the oil is sold below the G7 price cap. Implementation is intended to be coordinated with G7 partners.

The proposal also includes measures targeting Russia's liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry by introducing bans on provision of maintenance and other services for LNG tankers and icebreakers, as well as additional listings of sanctioned vessels and individuals.

Armed conflicts

Other developments include the soft reopening of the Suez Canal for trading vessels, following a decrease in Houthi attacks in the area. A full reopening will hopefully follow and lower the costs associated with rerouting ships around the Cape of Good Hope. The Strait of Hormuz/Persian Gulf is becoming increasingly risky as the area continues to be a point of contention, with an increase in AIS spoofing and GPS jamming of vessels in the area. In the Black Sea, vessels and port infrastructure continue to face attacks and AIS spoofing and GPS jamming are increasing also in this area. At the end of 2025 we also saw attacks by Ukraine on shadow fleet vessels, primarily in the Black Sea but also in the Mediterranean Sea.

Trade wars

The uncertainties of US trade tariffs and counter measures from affected countries and regions are still a simmering presence in the shipping industry.

In 2025, both the US and China chose to adopt several measures affecting Chinese and American-linked vessels and trade. The US measures, first announced on 17 April 2025, imposed various fees on Chinese-owned and -operated vessels and Chinese-built ships, as well as certain foreign-built vehicle carriers and foreign vessels transporting US liquefied natural gas (LNG). China announced countermeasures on 10 October 2025, including specific port charges on US owned and operated vessels, US flagged and US built vessels, as well as vessels owned or operated by entities in which a US entity or entities hold at least a 25% share of equity, board seats or voting rights. The measures led to rapid efforts to amend equity ownership and board composition in companies worldwide.

Following negotiations in October 2025, both China and the US implemented suspensions on the various measures, which came into effect on 10 November 2025 and will last until 10 November 2026.

However, in a new development in February 2026, the US published a new policy directive under its Executive Order 14269 "Restoring America's Maritime Dominance". The proposal introduces a new universal fee on all non-US-built commercial vessels calling at US ports, based on the weight of the "imported tonnage arriving on the vessel". The level of the universal fee is not fixed, but the proposal envisages a fee between 1 cent per kilogram and 25 cents per kilogram. It remains unclear how the proposed fee would interact with the China-specific measures that are currently suspended.

Furthermore, the proposal introduces legislation intended to prevent circumvention of the port fees by importing through land borders rather than in ports, due to concerns that goods could be imported into the US by land through neighbouring states to avoid the fees, as well requirements for high-volume exporting economies to transport a gradually increasing percentage of their US bound containerised cargo on qualifying US vessels.

In a judgment published on 20 February 2026, the US Supreme Court held that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorise the President to impose tariffs. The port fees are based on Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, and therefore the Supreme Court decision does not have any direct implications for these fees. However, the decision may be a signal that further challenges to Trump's use of executive powers may be forthcoming.

The green transition

The most prevalent topic concerning the green transition in 2026 is likely to be the uncertainty of the IMO Net-Zero Framework. The Net-Zero Framework proposes a global system intended to drive vessels toward net‑zero emissions by 2050. The Framework functions by incentivising the use of cleaner fuels and technologies, and by introducing pricing-and-reward mechanisms on fuels with a greenhouse gas intensity over or under a certain threshold.

The Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) approved the proposal in April 2025, and convened to adopt the framework in an extraordinary MEPC session in October 2025. The US withdrew from the negotiations and threatened to retaliate against any IMO members that supported the adoption. Following this, the adoption of the Framework was adjourned to October 2026.

The future of the Net-Zero Framework is now uncertain. If and when entry into force does happen, it is unlikely to be before 2028, and implementation of the Net-Zero Framework will likely take place during 2029 at the earliest. Whether or not any amendments to the current suggested Framework will be necessary in order to secure its adoption is still uncertain.

Individual states and regions are continuing to adopt their own carbon reduction incentive systems and "carbon taxes" covering the shipping industry. If a global framework is not adopted, there is a risk of a more and more fragmented regulatory landscape which will introduce additional compliance and administration complexity for the shipping industry.

Legal implications

The geopolitical developments continue to warrant an attentive and proactive approach. From a legal perspective it will become even more important to ensure clear risk allocation in charterparties, particularly when it comes to liability for potential port fees and tariffs and the implication of potential new carbon reduction incentive systems and "carbon taxes". In terms of the former BIMCO has already published clauses to regulate US and Chinese port fees for time charter parties: see the USTR Clause for Time Charter Parties (2025) and Chinese Special Port Fee Clause for Time Charter Parties (2025). For vessels trading to the US the possibility of the US imposing the proposed universal fee on all non-US-built commercial vessels calling at US ports should also be borne in mind when allocating risk and responsibilities.

In respect of armed conflicts it remains important to consider necessary flexibility in terms of entering an existing or potential war area (this is also important for piracy if vessels trade in areas where piracy is on the rise). On the sanctions side it remains important to include well-drafted sanctions clauses.

Ensuring back-to-back provisions in charterparty chains remains essential, but parties must also be aware of constraints arising from financing arrangements. Loan agreements frequently impose strict limitations on trading in potential war zones and often contain sanctions clauses that may differ materially from those typically found in charterparties.

These considerations apply equally to ship management agreements, particularly where ship managers are responsible for compliance with decarbonisation regulations such as FuelEU Maritime and the EU ETS. Where the ship managers provide crew, care should be taken to ensure that any contractual rights permitting crew to refuse to proceed through certain areas do not conflict with the trading areas permitted under relevant charterparties.

With respect to war zones and the increasing risk of AIS spoofing and GPS jamming, it is critical to properly understand the scope of the vessel's insurance cover, in particular with regards to any potential exclusions or limitations that may apply to these risks. We remain committed to assisting our clients in navigating this challenging landscape.

Conventions and standard contracts

Hong Kong Convention

The Hong Kong Convention (2009) ("HKC") came into force on 26 June 2025, following the threshold of ratifying states representing a sufficient percentage of the gross tonnage of the world's merchant shipping and the ship recycling having been met two years prior.

The HKC contains requirements that concern both ship-owners and ship recycling facilities. Relying on flag state jurisdiction, the HKC requires that a vessel flying the flag of a state that has ratified the HKC must only be recycled at a pre-approved facility fulfilling the standards of the HKC.

Shipowners that will recycle their vessels in 2026 will therefore need to be mindful of compliance with all applicable regulations, which will depend on both the vessel's flag state and geographical position at the time of making the decision to recycle. In addition to the Hong Kong Convention, this includes inter alia the EU Ship Recycling Regulation, the EU Waste Regulation and the Basel Convention as implemented into national law. Unfortunately, these regulations may not be consistent, and compliance with one regulation may still entail breach of another. For instance, once a vessel has received an International Ready for Recycling Certificate under the HKC and is intended to be recycled compliantly, it may simultaneously be considered 'hazardous waste' under the Basel Convention and/or the EU Waste Regulation, which means that it would be prohibited to export the vessel to a non-OECD country. The IMO has issued provisional guidance (HKSRC.2/Circ.1) attempting to address the HKC and Basel Convention conflict, though legal certainty remains outstanding.

For Norwegian-flagged vessels, the entry into force of the Hong Kong Convention has limited practical significance for the choice of recycling locations. The EU Ship Recycling Regulation (implemented into Norwegian law through the Regulation on Recycling of Ships and Mobile Offshore Units), imposes stricter requirements on where vessels may be recycled, permitting recycling only at yards included on the "European List". Accordingly, the HKC's entry into force does not expand the available recycling facilities for Norwegian-flagged vessels. However, Norwegian vessels must now also comply with the HKC requirement to have the International Certificate on Inventory of Hazardous Materials (IHM Certificate) on board. Vessels that already have an inventory certificate onboard in compliance with the EU Ship Recycling Regulation would already be in compliance with the requirements of the Hong Kong Convention as these largely overlap, however, the EU Ship Recycling Regulation has some additional requirements for listing certain hazardous material substances.

Norwegian yards that recycle vessels must comply with the requirements of the Hong Kong Convention. Careful consideration is therefore required before a decision to recycle is made. Read more about these regulations and their interplay in Thommessen's Sustainability Database.

New standard contracts and clauses from BIMCO

The new year commenced with the publication of two new contract clauses and one new standard contract from BIMCO.

The two contract clauses are to be used in Memoranda of Agreement (MOA) for the sale and purchase of ships and were published on 11 December 2025. The clauses regulate the effects of Emissions Trading Systems (ETS) and the FuelEU Maritime Regulation.

The ETS clause allocates costs and responsibilities between sellers and buyers of vessels subject to ETS schemes. Sellers must fulfil all reporting obligations and surrender any emission allowances incurred prior to delivery, with buyers assuming these responsibilities thereafter. The clause is drafted to apply not only to EU ETS, but also to other potential future emissions trading schemes.

Under the FuelEU clause, sellers must ensure and warrant the vessel's compliance with the FuelEU Maritime Regulation at delivery for the current and preceding reporting period, and are barred from borrowing any compliance balance from the delivery period. The clause addresses sellers' reporting obligations and provides for price adjustments based on compliance balances, with buyers assuming full responsibility from delivery.

Although the clauses may require some tailoring in order to suit individual MOAs, these are a welcome addition which are likely to become the starting point for negotiation.

BIMCO has also launched a new SUPERMAN standard agreement, governing supervision services by third parties on behalf of the buyers during vessel construction.

SALEFORM 2025, the new revised Norwegian Saleform MOA was adopted 26 February 2026. Norwegian Saleform 2012 is the Norwegian Shipbrokers’ Association’s internationally recognised MOA. The revision process is run by NSA and BIMCO in consultation with the industry. SALEFORM 2025 includes updates to the delivery provisions, sanctions compliance and new regulatory clauses. Thommessen will revert with a separate article on SALEFORM 2025.

Other upcoming contracts and clauses which are expected in 2026 include a biofuel clause for time charter parties, an ETS Clause for BARECON, retrofitting Cost/Benefit Clause for charterparties, and standard clauses for the carriage of electric vehicles and batteries, as well as new or revised CO2TIME, WINDSEACON, WRECKHIRE/WRECKFIXED, HEAVYLIFTVOY, LAYUPMAN and RECYCLECON contracts.

IMO regulations

A new Agreement under UNCLOS on the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Marine Biological Diversity of Areas beyond National Jurisdiction (the "High Seas Treaty") entered into force on 17 January 2026. It addresses marine genetic resources, measures such as area-based management tools, environmental impact assessments; and capacity-building and the transfer of marine technology. Most notable is the possibility of creating Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), designed for long-term conservation objectives. For the shipping industry, this may entail restricted routing of ships or speed limitations in order to protect sensitive ecosystems. Restrictions on noise, discharge and other operational activities may also be imposed.

Further, changes to SOLAS and MARPOL on the safety of navigation entered into force on 1 January 2026, as per Resolutions MSC.550(108) and MEPC.384(81). This includes amongst other that ships involved in the loss of freight containers are now obligated to report such incidents to nearby ships, the nearest coastal State, and the flag State. The duty also extends to ships observing drifting containers.

Another development is IMO's planned finalisation and adoption of a voluntary Marine Autonomous Surface Ships Code (MASS Code) in May 2026, regulating the use of autonomous ships. Its adoption will be followed by an "Experience-building phase" in December of 2026, which will be used during the development of a mandatory MASS Code in 2028.

The Convention on the International Effects of Judicial Sales of Ships (2022)

The Convention on the International Effects of Judicial Sales of Ships (2022), also known as the Beijing Convention on the Judicial Sale of Ships (the "Convention"), came into force on 17 February 2026.

The Convention was adopted by the UN Commission On International Trade Law General Assembly on 7 December 2022 with the aim to harmonise regulations concerning judicial sales of ships between states to ensure a predictable recognition of "clean title" after judicial sales.

Under the Convention a judicial sale conducted in one Convention state which has the effect of conferring clean title on the buyers will have the same effect in every other Convention state. The Convention prescribes additional rules which establish how a judicial sale is given effect after completion, such as deregistration and registration of the vessel, issuance of a certificate following the judicial sale, a prohibition of arrests after the judicial sale and it confers exclusive jurisdiction on the courts in the state of the judicial sale to any challenges of the sale.

The Convention has been signed by 33 states and the European Union and it has been ratified by Barbados, Spain and El Salvador. Ratification processes are currently underway in several of the signatory states. Norway has not signed the Convention.

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